Recent data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), provided mid-year estimates of the population at Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) level.
Overall the data indicate an increase of 3,465 (0.6%) over the year. However, there were variations by LSOA with 181 showing an increase,9 no change and 147 a decrease. How do we account for these variations?
Areas with population increases are generally those where there has been housing development. The table below shows the top five LSOAs where the number of people has risen.
LSOA Code | LSOA name | 2021 | 2022 | Plus No | +% |
018G | Trevemper and Lane | 1560 | 1749 | 189 | 12.1 |
016F | Pengover Road and Liskeard Hospital | 1405 | 1658 | 163 | 11.6 |
006B | Tregadillett and St Stephens by Launceston Rural | 1236 | 1370 | 134 | 10.8 |
015C | Tregadillett and St Stephens by Launceston Rural | 1860 | 2038 | 178 | 9.6 |
006D | Budock Water | 2036 | 2202 | 166 | 8.2 |
Turning to those LSOAs where the population fell, assessing those where the % fall was twice the average what patterns if any can we find? There are probably three reasons to account for population decline, namely:
Natural reductions as an areas population ages with increasing numbers of older single people;
More smaller households moving into an area compared to those moving out;
The conversion of properties to second homes/holiday lets thereby reducing the number of households.
LSOA code | LSOA name | 2021 | 2022 | -No | -% |
042B | Truro Cattle Market, Treffry and Nancemere | 2710 | 2666 | -44 | -1.6 |
067E | Penzance Treneere | 1529 | 1504 | -25 | -1.6 |
046B | Drump Road and Cardrew | 1703 | 1675 | -28 | -1.6 |
045A | Illogan Paynters Land End and Sunnyside Parc | 1284 | 1258 | -26 | -2 |
049B | Redruth Train Station and Victoria Park | 1926 | 1887 | -39 | -2 |
055A | Camborne Beacon and Brea | 1771 | 1735 | -36 | -2 |
LSOAs where changes to holiday use are probably the reason for population decline.
LSOA code | LSOA name | 2021 | 2022 | -No | -% |
037E | Looe East and West Looe Central | 2299 | 2268 | -31 | -1.3 |
032C | Cubert | 1375 | 1355 | -20 | -1.5 |
020C | Newquay Gannel East and Pentire | 2110 | 2061 | -49 | -2.3 |
020A | Newquay Fistral and Headland | 2156 | 2104 | -52 | -2.4 |
008E | Padstow Town | 1018 | 981 | -37 | -3.6 |
Looking at Mid Super Output Areas (MSOAs), we find that those with the largest declines in population between 2021 and 2022 are in areas associated with the holiday sector, namely:
Newquay West (-1.6%
Wadebridge (-1.3%)
St. Ives and Halsetown (-1.3%)
Looe and Polperro (-1%)
Padstow and St. Issey (-0.8%)
The Lizard (-0.8%).
Source
Office for National Statistics, 19th March 2024, Population estimates by output areas, electoral, health and other geographies, England and Wales: mid-2021 and mid-2022, Release.
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